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Already Said It!

This article first appeared on Oct 13, 2011.

Based on the newest numbers from Rasmussen, it is a fun day to be the “Swami”!

In an email to a buddy on Oct 5th, I said this:

As for the primaries, I’d bet odds on Gingrich or possibly Cain (if he doesn’t get to the front and lose momentum on a goof-up). Romney is pretty much what he is. He’s got his 25% that doesn’t move much. That looks daunting when there are 7-8 other candidates. Perry will simply have too much baggage (from the left over painted rocks – but more problematic for him from the right on immigration). Paul (like Romney) gets his 15-20%, but won’t carry enough to win the nomination. The
others are bit players soon to be sifted out by the sheer demands (money & organisation) of the process.

With Perry fading, Gingrich / Cain are your two next tiers that are at this point battling to mobilise the Conservatives & be “not-Mitt”. The winner of that two-man competition will likely be your nominee.

Like-ability favours Cain; organisation and experience favours Gingrich.
In the end, I suspect that primary voters are going to have to ask themselves the question: “Do I vote for the guy who has been there / done that – whom I may not especially like OR do I vote for the guy who is “most like me” – who lost his only previous campaign to Moderate Johnny Isakson in Deep-Red Georgia?”

Advantage: Gingrich…..

As a follow-up, this was my prediction for what you will see next (as sent in another email to my buddy):

Looking at the now-current topography, I’ll predict that Gingrich will
be the nominee. Per the Guilliani / Thompson rule, being the “leader”
this close to the beginning of actual votes is going to ratchet up the
attention. There will probably just be too much visibility & pressure
about to dump on the perceived Conservative front-runner (now likely Cain).

If that is true, then the likely beneficiary will be Mr. “In-Third” right
now (Gingrich). When it gets to a break point near the first primaries / caucus’,
the “anti-Romney” at that time will win the first couple. This will functionally choke out the rest of the competition and result in a convergence on the Conservative front-runner at that point.

Frankly, recent events only increase the odds that Newt Gingrich will be the Republican nominee (and I predict President of the United States). Whether it is a result of providence, planning, or blind luck, he is in the prime position to take the lead at the opportune time giving every perception of momentum in the victory.

[Update Jan 2012: While Gingrich's early peak might have been a little too early and set him up for the wave of negative attacks that impacted his campaign in advance of Iowa & New Hampshire, I am still pretty confident that the final two will end up Romney vs. Gingrich (with an eventual Republican nomination for the former Speaker).]